EU split over Palestine statehood, Ukraine uncovers graft scheme, EU probes Minsk-Benghazi flights, Poland extends border control
The Capitals

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In today’s edition:

- A fractured path to recognising Palestine
- Ukraine: Graft scheme uncovered
- EU probes Minsk-Benghazi flights
- Poland extends border control
- Pope Leo rallies Catholic youth

Israel is facing its fiercest European backlash in years. Amid worsening famine in Gaza, governments across the continent are stepping up pressure, with even Germany – the most stalwart of allies – hardening its tone.

Some EU member states are airlifting aid to Palestinians and pondering the idea of suspending Israel from the bloc’s flagship research programme, Horizon Europe. The phrase “diplomatic tsunami,” once coined by former Israeli officials to describe a sweeping wave of global backlash, is making a comeback, in Israel’s own media.

At the heart of Europe's political debate this month is a contentious and long-standing question: should the bloc formally recognise a Palestinian state?

France and Saudi Arabia are leading the charge, aiming to build momentum before the UN General Assembly in September, during which more nations are expected to recognise Palestine. Given its sort of quasi-state status, recognition carries a weight more symbolic than practical – a powerful moral and political gesture, yet one unlikely to alter realities on the ground.

Several European nations – including Spain, Ireland, Slovenia and Norway – made the move last year. In recent weeks, the UK, Malta, and Finland have also made announcements in France’s footsteps.

But momentum is far from uniform. In several of the former communist EU states that once supported recognition, enthusiasm has cooled.

In Finland, the ruling centre-right National Coalition Party was forced to walk back its support after coalition partners said they had not been consulted. The backlash now threatens the government's stability.

In Belgium, right-wing parts of the government – the Flemish nationalist N-VA and French-speaking liberal MR – are resisting recognition, clashing with the left-leaning Les Engagés, Christian Democrats and Flemish socialists.

Portugal’s centre-right PM Luis Montenegro, under pressure from the populist far-right Chega party, has opted for caution, pledging to seek consensus before making any decisions.

France argues that recognising Palestine could jump start the moribund two-state solution, pointing to an unprecedented agreement among Arab and European nations last week that conditions Palestinian statehood on Hamas disbanding and relinquishing control of Gaza.

Hamas, however, insists it will only lay down arms once it has a state. Israel and the US warn that recognition now would only embolden Hamas to avoid pursuing peace in negotiations – which remain deadlocked.

Meanwhile, the war intensifies. Last night, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu pushed to expand the offensive in Gaza, citing newly released, gruesome videos of hostages Rom Braslavski and Evyatar David as proof Hamas' intransigence. He again vowed to secure the release of hostages – 20 of whom are believed to be alive – by military force.

Netanyahu is clinging to power with the support of far-right ministers who have threatened to bring down the government if he ends the war. But his hardline approach has drawn rare condemnation from Israel’s former military and security establishment, which recently issued a joint plea for a ceasefire – an appeal that was ignored.

At the EU level, foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas led the bloc’s response, denouncing the hostage videos from Hamas and Islamic Jihad, another Palestinian militant group. France’s Emmanuel Macron decried Hamas’ “unlimited inhumanity,” while Germany’s Friedrich Merz said the group was torturing hostages, terrorising Israel, and "using Gaza’s population as a human shield.”

Belgium’s Hadja Lahbib, Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid, later urged Israel to let aid flow and stop obstructing access for EU humanitarian officials.

Kallas was first to react from Brussels, and a comment by Estonian MP Marko Mihkelson, a senior member of the Reform Party once led by Kallas, captures her sentiment: “The barbarity of Hamas makes it impossible for Estonia and like-minded countries to recognize Palestine.”

Estonia and other Baltic nations, as well as Germany, Italy, Austria, and the Czech Republic do not recognise Palestine.

As the countdown to September’s UN meeting begins, Europe's internal debate is likely to intensify. Until then, Netanyahu holds fast, buoyed by Donald Trump, while hostages remain underground and the war drags on.

Ukraine uncovers corruption scheme in drone procurement

Kyiv’s anti-corruption agencies announced Saturday that they had uncovered a major graft scheme involving overpriced contracts for military drones and signals jamming equipment.

Four individuals have been detained so far, though none have been publicly identified yet. The arrests come just days after Ukraine’s Parliament restored the agencies’ independence following widespread protests sparked by a law that had attempted to curb their autonomy.

A sitting lawmaker, two local officials and an unspecified number of the country’s national guard personnel were implicated in the scandal, according to officials, receiving kickbacks of up to 30% on inflated contracts. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the discovery “absolutely immoral.” Read more.

EU probes Minsk-Benghazi flights amid migration fears

The European Commission is investigating a series of unusual flights from Minsk to Benghazi amid growing concern that Russia may be helping to drive a new wave of irregular migration to southern Europe, an EU official told Euractiv.

The flights, operated by Belarusian carrier Belavia, have raised suspicions in Brussels of possible coordination with authorities in eastern Libya – a region controlled by strongman Khalifa Haftar, who maintains close ties with the Kremlin.

“The frequency and nature of these flights raise questions about potential facilitation of irregular migration flows,” the EU official said. Between January and June 2025, more than 27,000 migrants arrived in Italy from Libya, while over 7,000 reached the Greek island of Crete – triple the number from the same period last year.

Europe has faced a similar situation before. In the summer of 2021, Belarus was at the centre of a migration crisis on its borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.

Russia was believed to have been indirectly involved in that crisis, with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko playing a central role – facilitating the issuance of visas, organising flights, and transporting migrants from the Middle East and Africa to Minsk. Read more.

BERLIN

Israel’s provision of humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip remains “very insufficient" despite “limited initial progress”, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told the country's senior cabinet members.

Wadephul’s briefing came after he visited Israel and the Palestinian territories to review efforts in alleviating the suffering of civilians in the Israeli-occupied enclave. The outcome could determine Germany’s stance on EU-level sanctions against Israel, Chancellor Merz has said.

PARIS

France has suspended all evacuations from Gaza, Jean-Noël Barrot, the country’s foreign ministry said, as domestic outrage mounted over a Palestinian student accused of posting antisemitic content on social media.

The female student, who was studying in the northern city of Lille, had her university accreditation withdrawn and is now expected to leave France, according to authorities.

Since 7 October, Paris has assisted hundreds of people fleeing Gaza. Other Palestinians in the country through its evacuation programme will be “subject to a new check” in the wake of “failures that brought this young woman here,” Barrot added.

ROME

Pope Leo XIV received a rock star welcome from hundreds of thousands of young Catholics during a massive open-air vigil on the outskirts of this city over the weekend.

Pope Leo, the first US-born pontiff, presided over a Jubilee of Youth event on Sunday, touring the jampacked Tor Vergata field in his white popemobile, waving, delivering blessings and even catching flags tossed by enthusiastic pilgrims.

According to the Vatican, the event, designed to mobilise the next generation of devotees, was attended by youth from more than 146 countries. The Italian broadcaster Rai described the festival as a “Catholic woodstock."

LONDON

Britain's financial watchdog has proposed a compensation scheme for victims of car finance mis-selling, estimating the potential cost to lenders to be between £9 and £18 billion (€10 and €21 billion).

The Financial Conduct Authority’s plan follows a Supreme Court ruling last week, which eased industry fears of an even larger payout over hidden commissions on motor finance deals. Analysts had warned the total bill could soar into the tens of billions.

MADRID

Dolors Montserrat, secretary general of the European People’s Party, on Sunday asked the Commission to decide if Teresa Ribera, the executive’s top-ranking vice president, misled lawmakers during her confirmation hearing.

In a question submitted to the Commission, Montserrat accused Ribera of hiding key information about the devastating floods that hit southeastern Spain last October, killing 228 people. Montserrat claims that the Júcar Hydrographic Confederation, a Spanish river basin authority under Ribera’s ministerial control, failed to alert the public in a timely manner amid the tragic incident.

WARSAW

Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński announced Sunday that border controls with Germany and Lithuania will be extended by two months amid concerns over irregular migration routes shifting through the Baltic region.

Poland first reintroduced border controls last month, responding to similar measures on the German side. Polish PM Donald Tusk has since made lifting the restrictions conditional on a reciprocal move by Berlin. Read more.

A deal between Donald Trump and European NATO states to get desperately needed Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine hinges on just how quickly new batteries can be moved to the continent.

Several European countries initially signalled interest in doing a deal, viewing Trump's proposal to quickly sell new air defence systems to European militaries that donate their Patriots as a way of keeping key US weapons flowing to Ukraine, while avoiding major gaps in their own capabilities.

Zelenskyy has been seeking additional Patriot batteries for years as his country faces relentless Russian air attacks. He said last week that he hopes to receive 10 more.

Is 'Big Food' going on a diet?

From Unilever to Nestlé and Kellogg, some of the biggest food multinationals are selling brands and business units, creating space for new players to step in – most notably with the unusual purchase of Carrefour Italy by a food group.

It started with breakfast cereals. In 2023, American company Kellogg's was split into two separate entities. The first, focused on snacks and renamed Kellanova, was acquired by the global giant Mars for some €32 billion ($36 billion), bringing Pringles crisps and M&M's sweets under the same umbrella. Read more.

EU could earn €1 trillion by fully taxing aviation, private jets included

The EU could boost its carbon pricing revenues from aviation by up to tenfold if it eliminates key exemptions and fully applies its emissions rules to the sector, according to a new study by Carbon Market Watch.

The green watchdog said the planned 2026 revision of the EU's CO₂ pricing system is an “excellent opportunity” to both cut aviation emissions and generate significant funding for climate policies. Read more.

EU Commissioner Teresa Ribera paid tribute to Olivier Guersent, the long-serving French civil servant who stepped down after five years at the helm of the Commission’s powerful anti-trust arm.

Veteran Belgian diplomat Frans van Daele, 77, will stay on as the EU special envoy for promoting freedom of religion or belief outside the bloc, Ursula von der Leyen confirmed in a letter to Dutch Christian MEP Bert-Jan Ruissen.

Van Daele, who has held the role since 2022, recently told Flemish paper De Tijd that the Commission made the “right considerations” in agreeing to the US tariff deal, warning that a trade war could have jeopardised Ukraine, NATO, and the EU’s digital laws. “Von der Leyen negotiated well with a bad hand,” he said.

author_name Newsletter Editor
Eddy Wax

Contributors: Nick Alipour, Jeremias Lin, Charles Szumski, Inés Fernández-Pontes, Aleksandra Krzysztoszek, Daniel Eck

Editors: Christina Zhao, Sofia Mandilara

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