Overnight, US President Donald Trump declined to rule out deploying ground troops to Iran. Within hours, a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards threatened to “burn any ship” transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil and gas route.

Follow our live blog today for the latest twists in the Middle East, and how Europe is responding.

You’re reading Rapporteur on Tuesday 3 March. This is Eddy Wax, joined by Nicoletta Ionta in Brussels.

Need-to-knows:

🟢 Exclusive: Reza Pahlavi set to be invited to EU Parliament

🟢 Cyprus presidency under pressure

🟢 What Macron’s major nuclear speech means

On the roundabout: The EU wades into world map debate

The official line in Brussels – and elsewhere – is that only the Iranian people can decide their own future. Yet with the US and Israel pushing for regime change, the Europeans are left with a question. Who should they support to fill the looming vacuum?

The European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee has drawn up a list of Iranian opposition figures to invite to speak at an upcoming meeting, Rapporteur can reveal. The list of eight people – still subject to internal approval – includes Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last Shah. Pahlavi has cultivated ties with the US administration and appears to command some support inside Iran, where protesters have chanted his name amid a brutal regime crackdown.

An invitation to speak at the European Parliament is obviously not a one-way ticket to power in Tehran – especially when Donald Trump appears to have his own plans for Iran’s future leadership.

Still, the list offers a snapshot of whom politicians across the EU deem credible – and whom they view as irrelevant, or worse. Roberta Metsola’s cabinet and the European External Action Service were consulted on the list but did not comment, according to an email seen by Rapporteur. Political groups are due to sign off on the invitations on Wednesday.

It’s no surprise that Pahlavi tops the list. He has styled himself as a secular, democratic alternative to the mullahs’ regime, and at mass protests around Europe this year – from Brussels to Munich – he has emerged as a favourite figure among parts of the Iranian diaspora.

“He’s going to give the choice to the people to decide what kind of form the new state of Iran is going to have,” said Sebastian Tynkkynen, a Finnish ECR lawmaker who has campaigned for Pahlavi to be invited.

Tynkkynen thinks Pahlavi would accept. “International visibility and recognition are the important things that Reza Pahlavi needs,” he said.

The omissions are also telling. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), also known as the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) – originally an Islamic-Marxist organisation – did not make it onto the list despite extensive lobbying of MEPs, which we have documented here.

The group has shown it can attract EU bigwigs like former Belgian PM Guy Verhofstadt to its events. In the US, it has the loud support of former Trump allies Mike Pompeo and Mike Pence, who flew to Brussels for an NCRI rally last year. Rudy Giuliani, a longtime supporter, has been attacking Pahlavi as “dangerous.”

In Brussels, the likes of Renew’s Petras Auštrevičius and the EPP’s Milan Zver are pushing to give NCRI a seat at the table. Others on the list include Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi and the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, another originally Marxist group.

Hannah Neumann, a German Green and long-time Iran specialist, told Rapporteur: “For a transition to succeed, it needs everyone on board. This is a balanced representation of civil society and opposition in the diaspora."

She added a note of caution. “But let’s not forget that there are also many inside Iran and even Evin prison that sadly – as of now – cannot join us for such a debate.”

In a symbolic gesture, a ninth chair at the event will be left empty, “representing those in Iran,” according to the email.

Cyprus presidency feels the heat

The tiny country of Cyprus would have faced an uphill struggle to host all the EU’s meetings for six months, even if the world had not gone up in flames. Now, with missiles landing on sovereign British bases there, the presidency is truly up against it.

Because of the Iranian threat, four Greek F-16 fighter jets have arrived in Cyprus and two Greek frigates are expected soon, the Cypriot government said last night. The Greek defence minister visits Cyprus today. Meanwhile, the Commission said it expects discussions in the coming days on activating the EU’s mutual assistance clause, Sarantis Michalopoulos reported.

Klaus Welle, a long-standing Brussels insider who now advises Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, told Euractiv: “Cyprus shows that everyone can be affected, not only the countries in the East.”

After last week’s focus on Ukraine, enlargement was literally removed from the agenda on Monday when the General Affairs Council in Nicosia was called off – unfortunate timing for Germany’s minister, Gunther Krichbaum, who had already arrived.

The informal Culture Council scheduled for Thursday in Nicosia has also been postponed after strikes in Iran disrupted flights to Cyprus. Presidency meetings will go online or be rescheduled. Kaja Kallas will hold a meeting with the Gulf Cooperation Council on Thursday, Rapporteur has learned.

Sánchez risks Trump’s wrath

US tanker aircraft have relocated from military bases in southern Spain after Pedro Sánchez declined to authorise logistical support linked to the joint US-Israeli campaign against Iran.

Spain’s decision to withhold permission for the flights marks the latest point of friction between Sánchez, a staunch critic of both Israel and Donald Trump, and the US administration. Read Inés Fernández-Pontes’ story from Madrid.

Scramble to leave the Gulf

Getting Europeans home from the Gulf is proving tricky. Iranian strikes have disrupted some of the region’s busiest aviation hubs and much of the airspace remains closed, limiting safe exit routes for tens of thousands of EU travellers and expats. Embassies are scrambling to respond.

France faces the biggest logistical challenge, with more than 400,000 nationals in the region. Most EU governments are urging citizens to stay put while prioritising urgent cases.

Elisa Braun and Magnus Lund Nielsen have a country-by-country breakdown of the fast-moving situation here.

Macron broadens France’s nuclear shield

On Monday, Emmanuel Macron unveiled a major overhaul of France’s nuclear doctrine, opening elements of its deterrence strategy to European allies – from joint exercises to deploying strategic air assets, my colleague Charles Cohen reports.

Eight countries – Germany, the UK, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark – have signed on. France will also expand its nuclear arsenal, currently estimated at about 300 warheads, though the exact increase remains undisclosed.

'Made in Europe' law risks fresh delay

The Industrial Accelerator Act, slated to be presented on Wednesday, may be pushed back again as EU officials scramble to get it over the line. A fresh meeting of Commission heads of cabinet is scheduled for today after the package failed to secure approval on Monday, according to three EU officials.

Commissioner Stéphane Séjourné has previously indicated he would accept a delay. The proposal, intended to reduce strategic dependencies in key industries, has exposed divisions within the EU executive and among national capitals over how far the bloc should embrace protectionist tools.

US ambassadors keep their heads down: Amid heightened interest in Washington’s plans for Iran, Andrew Puzder, the US ambassador to the EU, cancelled a planned appearance at a CEPS conference last night without explanation. Bill White, the US ambassador to Belgium, did not show up to a big Iran rally on Sunday, though he sent a message of support and later met Iranian-born Belgian MP Darya Safai on Monday.

Paper maps: In an episode straight out of The West Wing, the Commission on Monday told an MEP it was following “global geopolitical discussions” on ... world maps. The lawmaker, Jaume Asens Llodrà, had raised concerns about the continued use of the Eurocentric Mercator map, long criticised by cartographers for exaggerating Europe’s relative size – and particularly that of Greenland.

The Commission said it does not have the authority to determine which maps EU countries use in their schools. Pro tip for euro-pessimists: A map of the galaxy makes Europe look tiny.

VIENNA 🇦🇹

Foreign Minister Beate Meinl-Reisinger summoned Iran’s ambassador on Monday, condemning Tehran’s actions as “unprovoked” and in breach of international law, national media reported. “The spiral of escalation must end,” she said, urging a return to diplomacy and civilian protection. The ministry estimates 17,000 Austrians are in the region, including 2,500 travellers. Meinl-Reisinger also spoke with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar.

– Magdalena Kensy

ROME 🇮🇹

Italy’s opposition on Monday pressed Giorgia Meloni to address parliament on the escalating Middle East crisis, arguing that a brief statement issued on Saturday was insufficient. After ministers briefed lawmakers on US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein called for “a clear statement” from Meloni. Five Star Movement leader Giuseppe Conte said the government’s position remained unclear.

– Alessia Peretti

BRATISLAVA 🇸🇰

Robert Fico said Monday he would seek talks with Ursula von der Leyen over what he described as the “serious” shutdown of the Druzhba oil pipeline. He also plans to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as soon as possible. The pipeline has been offline since 27 January, halting Russian oil supplies to Slovakia and Hungary.

– Natália Silenská

KYIV 🇺🇦

The next round of Ukraine peace talks could be held in Switzerland or Turkey rather than Abu Dhabi, Zelenskyy said on Monday, citing instability in the Emirati capital. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was open to further negotiations but struck a cautious note on US mediation. “We trust ourselves first and foremost,” he said, as Washington conducts parallel strikes on Iran.

– Emiliia Ternovskaia

After Israeli capitation strikes killed senior Iranian commanders, Tehran has moved swiftly to install an interim leadership and activate the Basij to protect continuity, according to former Mossad analyst Sima Shine. She argues the Islamic Republic was designed to withstand such blows – and warns that as Iran widens the confrontation to Gulf states, European security services are bracing for possible retaliation on their own soil.

Contributors: Elisa Braun, Magnus Lund Nielsen, Claudie Moreau, Maximilian Henning, Sarantis Michalopoulos, Nikolaus J. Kurmayer

Editors: Christina Zhao, Sofia Mandilara, Charles Szumski