Also, Bucha anniversary, MEPs to China, migration, energy crunch, Venice Biennale
Rapporteur

You’re reading Rapporteur on Monday 30 March. This is Nicoletta Ionta in Brussels.

Need-to-knows:

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Europe under pressure as Hormuz blockade escalates

🟢 Foreign ministers to meet in Ukraine this week

🟢 Cyprus says EU sees no Iran-linked migrant surge yet

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has settled into an uneasy standoff, and Europe is running out of room to stay on the sidelines.

Over the weekend, Yemen’s Houthi movement announced its entry into the US-Israeli war on Iran, firing a barrage of ballistic missiles at southern Israel on Saturday and opening a new front in the regional conflict.

The escalation follows February strikes on Iran by Israel and the US, after which Tehran moved to choke off one of the world’s most critical energy arteries, threatening vessels attempting to transit the strait. The result is a de facto blockade of a chokepoint carrying roughly a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas – a shock now rippling through global markets and European households.

G7 leaders huddled again on Friday to hash out a response, reiterating “the absolute necessity” of restoring freedom of navigation through the strait. Finance ministers are due to discuss the fallout today as energy prices continue to climb.

France said its military chiefs met around 35 counterparts to discuss a potential future initiative to safeguard shipping in the Gulf, though only once hostilities have subsided.

European governments have so far refused to be drawn into any military effort to reopen it. The bloc’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, has framed the conflict as “not Europe’s war.” The EU has instead backed a limited reinforcement of its Red Sea naval mission, Operation Aspides, while rejecting any expansion of its mandate to the Gulf.

That position is becoming harder to sustain. Rising oil and gas prices are fuelling political pressure across the continent. Yet EU leaders fear that any military intervention could drag Europe into a widening regional conflict.

On Sunday, the EU naval mission in the Red Sea warned that attacks on commercial shipping could soon resume, particularly in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, following Houthi strikes on Israel. The development could force a renewed debate over the mission’s scope.

For now, diplomats remain cautious. The Houthis have not yet targeted shipping in the Red Sea. “If that changes, a discussion about the mandate can always be had,” one diplomat told Rapporteur, adding it was too early to say.

Were the Houthis to resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, the conflict could escalate further. A closure of Houthi-controlled Bab al-Mandab Strait would push energy prices higher and deal a fresh blow to the global economy.

Across the Atlantic, Donald Trump is losing patience. He has publicly accused European allies of complaining about high energy prices while refusing to take part in what he called a “simple military maneuver” to reopen the strait. This week, he extended his deadline for Iran to lift the blockade by ten days, to 6 April.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to brief EU foreign ministers on the Iran file – an idea floated during the G7 talks – though no date has yet been set, one EU official said.

Bucha remembrance meets political deadlock

EU foreign ministers are gathering in Kyiv this week to mark four years since Russia’s atrocities in Bucha, as divisions over support for Ukraine persist. Ministers will discuss further backing for Kyiv, with Hungary continuing to veto a €90 billion loan intended to replenish Ukraine’s finances and support its war effort.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó is expected to skip the meeting, though a Hungarian delegation will attend on Tuesday, three officials told my colleague Magnus Lund Nielsen and me.

Szijjártó is under scrutiny for his contacts with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov around EU Council meetings. Budapest is demanding that Kyiv resume Russian oil flows via the Druzhba pipeline before lifting its veto, despite having agreed to the loan last December.

No signs of Iran migrant surge, Cyprus says

Cyprus’s migration chief, Nicholas Ioannides, struck a cautious tone on fears of a refugee surge to Europe tied to the conflict in Iran, in an interview with Rapporteur.

“There are no signs of flows from Iran at this stage,” he said, noting that past regional wars – including Iran-Iraq – did not trigger mass departures to the bloc. Instead, displacement tends to remain internal or confined to neighbouring countries.

For frontline Cyprus, the bloc’s easternmost state, instability is nothing new. “Unfortunately, our neighborhood is very volatile,” he said. “Every time an armed conflict erupts in the region, we're getting ready, getting prepared in order to deal with possible migratory flows.” Last month, British bases on the island were the target of attacks by Iranian drones.

Still, Brussels and national capitals are watching closely. A recent letter from Italy and Denmark urged the Commission to avoid a repeat of the 2015 crisis, including by preparing emergency measures if arrivals spike. Ioannides called such concerns “normal,” but insists the bloc is better equipped this time, citing stronger legal frameworks, upgraded infrastructure and clearer procedures ahead of the EU’s migration pact rollout in June.

Digital detox for MEPs headed to China

Nine MEPs from the Internal Market Committee will head to Beijing and Shanghai this week – the first such visit in eight years – for talks with Chinese officials on tech and e-commerce, as well as meetings with companies including Shein, Alibaba and Temu.

Officials advised participants not to carry personal devices, one person briefed on the mission told my colleague Anupriya Datta. French lawmaker Stéphanie Yon-Courtin said MEPs would follow “best practices” on secure communication.

One European Parliament spokesperson told Euractiv that "necessary measures" had been taken to ensure information security, calling the issue "sensitive."

Parliamentary trips were halted during the pandemic, and further frozen after Beijing sanctioned several MEPs in 2021.

EU €1tn renewables shift falls short

After decades of pouring billions into wind and solar, Europe is facing another energy crunch, with its reliance on foreign supplies largely unchanged from 20 years ago. In 2004, the EU imported 56.9% of its energy, despite ambitious promises that renewables would turn the bloc from energy-poor to energy-independent. Two decades on, that figure has barely moved, inching up to 57.2%.

My colleague Nikolaus J. Kurmayer unpacks why the bloc’s green transition has yet to deliver energy independence. Read the full story.

MEPs pile pressure on Biennale over Russia

A cross-party group of MEPs is urging the Commission to follow through on its warning to pull EU funding from the Venice Biennale if Russia is allowed back in. Last month, Commissioners Micallef and Virkkunen blasted the decision to allow Russia to reopen its national pavilion at the 2026 Venice Biennale.

In a letter to von der Leyen and Kallas – and seen by Rapporteur – lawmakers argue the bloc must match words with action after the Commission said it could suspend funding over Moscow’s participation.

“Culture must never be used as a platform for propaganda,” Brussels warned at the time, but MEPs now want concrete steps, including sanctions checks and cutting roughly €2 million in EU support if the pavilion goes ahead. The Commission did not reply to a request for comment before publication.

Schengen tip knocks at MEP door: Italian police carried out a Saturday morning “preventive check” on far-left MEP Ilaria Salis at her Rome hotel ahead of a politically charged protest weekend, following a request relayed by an unidentified European country – raising fresh questions over parliamentary immunity in the EU. Read the full story.

BERLIN 🇩🇪

Syrian President Ahmed al-Shaara will travel to Berlin today for talks with Friedrich Merz on Tuesday, making his first official visit to Germany. The trip, delayed from January by fighting in eastern Syria, comes as efforts intensify to integrate Kurdish-led forces into the national army. Discussions are expected to centre on Germany’s role in Syria’s reconstruction, Euractiv has learnt.

Björn Stritzel

PARIS 🇫🇷

French authorities have arrested three people over a suspected foiled bomb attack targeting Bank of America’s Paris headquarters, prosecutors said. A suspect was detained at the scene after placing a device containing flammable liquid and an ignition system near the site. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said the incident may be linked to the US-Israel war on Iran, though investigations remain ongoing.

Christina Zhao

MADRID 🇪🇸

In a letter to party members on Sunday, Pedro Sánchez reaffirmed Spain’s opposition to war with Iran, saying the country “speaks plainly” and remains “on the right side.” He also highlighted a new energy support package, including fuel and tax cuts, describing it as the EU’s strongest social safety net and a source of national pride.

Inés Fernández-Pontes

BRATISLAVA 🇸🇰

Robert Fico has again threatened to withhold support for a new EU sanctions package against Russia, warning Bratislava could block further measures if the European Commission prioritises Kyiv over Slovak interests. He also signalled opposition to fast-tracking Ukraine’s EU accession, as ties with Kyiv deteriorate over disruptions to the Druzhba oil pipeline.

– Natália Silenská

BELGRADE 🇷🇸

Local elections across 10 Serbian municipalities turned tense in the first electoral test for a year-and-a-half-long student protest movement. The vote was marred by reports of irregularities, including attacks on journalists, activists and observers, according to local media. Full results are expected today, with the ruling Serbian Progressive Party widely expected to retain control.

Bronwyn Jones

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Nicoletta Ionta

Contributors: Anupriya Datta, Charles Cohen, Magnus Lund Nielsen, Nikolaus J. Kurmayer

Editors: Christina Zhao, Sofia Mandilara, Charles Szumski

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