You're reading Thursday’s Rapporteur. This is Eddy Wax dozing on the train back from Strasbourg, with Nicoletta Ionta in Brussels.

Need-to-knows:

🟢 Europe can go back to bed, after tariff threats fade

🟢 We take you inside a brutal EPP Mercosur post-mortem

🟢 Berlin and Rome float competitiveness plan

EU leaders flying to Brussels today were never going to agree on a tough response to Washington. Most – from Giorgia Meloni to Friedrich Merz – spent the week carefully calibrating their language and steering clear of any mention of the bloc’s trade "bazooka," teeing up a potentially dreadful night of summitry.

Donald Trump’s late, apparent capitulation has now spared them even that test. The US president paused his threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland last night, just as we predicted, removing the need for the leaders to take difficult decisions.

Instead, they can spend the evening kicking back, enjoying their dinner, and pontificating about the lessons that must be learnt – but likely will not be – from one of the craziest weeks in recent memory. Better still, they can claim, as Meloni did last night, that their focus on dialogue, not escalation, saved the day.

Details of the arrangement Trump has reached with Denmark over Greenland remain sparse. Much attention will focus on the role played by NATO chief Mark Rutte, who sacrificed his last ounce of self-respect at the altar of the US president’s ego. Whether that display is judged strategic or simply humiliating will be debated at length by analysts. But the most consequential political miscalculation may have been made by another Brussels-based leader.

Ursula von der Leyen saw a central pillar of her geopolitical strategy unravel as MEPs blocked her attempt to push through the Mercosur trade deal, instead diverting it to Luxembourg, where the EU’s top judges could spend years poring over it. The vote was carried by an unusual coalition of populists, Greens and rebels within nominally pro-European groups.

Von der Leyen’s team has long paid lip service to Parliament – but on Tuesday she chose to be in Davos to talk about the "powerful message" of Mercosur to the world, rather than in Strasbourg attempting to shore up wavering support among MEPs. She lost by just 10 votes.

"What’s the point of having dozens of people writing speeches and opening doors to jets if then one lacks a serious ‘whip’ effect in the European Parliament?" asked one EU official.

"She’s loading the guns that are pointed at her," said an EPP insider. "This is all stacking up. At some point the risk is losing control."

Today’s no-confidence vote – pushed by the French far-right – will fail. But what about the next one?

Von der Leyen was already under immense pressure from EPP allies and European Council leaders like Merz to ram through Mercosur before judges rule on its legality. But making Mercosur provisionally applicable – a step she is highly likely to take – is bound to trigger a fresh motion of censure, as MEPs cry foul and brand the move anti-democratic.

With the Trump tariff threat seemingly allayed for now, this emerging "Mercosur majority," cutting through Parliament's factions along national lines, could pose a far more immediate challenge to the Commission.

EPP tears itself apart over Mercosur

“I think I've been in funerals with a nicer atmosphere than at this group meeting,” a parliamentary source told Rapporteur as EPP lawmakers slugged it out over their Mercosur divisions. Forty-three of the group’s 187 members voted against the agreed line, leaving Manfred Weber “very pissed off,” another insider said.

Weber praised Irish, Belgian and Slovak MEPs for biting their tongues and abstaining or backing him, but said he was unhappy with the French, Slovenians and Poles. Several speakers questioned whether the EPP had simply become too broad to function. Spain’s Esteban González Pons said the group should reflect on why it exists at all. More recent entrants, including Dutch farmers and Péter Magyar’s TISZA, were criticised for their open betrayal.

One source said Polish MEP and Vice-President Andrzej Halicki got an “arse-kicking.” François-Xavier Bellamy, the French delegation leader, defended his position, arguing that Jordan Bardella would tell farmers to abandon the Republicans unless they broke with the EPP line. He asked rhetorically if the EPP wanted them out. Weber then intervened to urge him not to talk of excluding delegations.

New CDU delegation chief Niclas Herbst won applause after bashing colleagues he said were chasing populists, warning that celebrating self-harm wrought on the EPP on social media was a losing strategy. Croatia’s Željana Zovko argued that tougher internal sanctions should be considered.

Tensions were not confined to the EPP. Renew Europe’s meeting last night was described as a bloodbath after leader Valérie Hayer and chief whip Billy Kelleher both broke their group’s line by voting to delay the Mercosur deal. Angry MEPs lined up to savage the French for their narrow domestic interest, several sources said.

Berlin-Rome competitiveness plan

Germany and Italy have drawn up a joint competitiveness wish list, seen by Rapporteur, ahead of leaders’ informal retreat on 12 February.

The two capitals urge Brussels to bin outdated legislative proposals, fast-track a long-discussed 28th regime by the end of the year and establish a pan-European stock exchange to channel capital towards innovative firms.

They also call for a “clean sweep” of obsolete laws and pending initiatives. On state aid, they want simpler rules and faster approvals, particularly as the General Block Exemption Regulation is revised. More broadly, Berlin and Rome argue for “legislative restraint,” including an emergency brake if new EU laws add to regulatory burdens.

Meloni and Merz are also set to meet in Rome on Friday for a bilateral summit.

Returns on the table

EU migration ministers meet today in Cyprus for an informal Council gathering, with voluntary returns and forced returns of Afghan and Syrian nationals topping the agenda.

Cyprus Deputy Migration Minister Nicholas Ioannides, now steering talks under the new Council presidency, said many capitals wanted deportations reinstated, at least for convicted offenders and security risks. “We are willing to discuss our returns to Afghanistan with our EU partners and the Commission in order to facilitate the establishment of a mechanism,” he told Rapporteur last week.

Belgium has been a driving force behind the push. In October, it rallied 19 governments to urge the Commission to strengthen cooperation on Afghan returns. On Syria, Belgian Migration Minister Anneleen Van Bossuyt said she favours “voluntary return whenever possible and forced return when necessary,” adding that Syrians who return voluntarily could receive up to €5,000 in EU-backed reintegration support, according to a statement shared with Rapporteur on Wednesday.

Democracy Shield falls short

The European Parliament is unimpressed by the Commission’s Democracy Shield, warning it lacks the muscle to counter Russian interference and Big Tech-driven disinformation.

A draft report by EPP rapporteur Tomas Tobé says the Commission’s “level of ambition does not yet match the scale of the threat,” even if the initiative represents “an important step.”

The EU faces a “very dangerous cocktail” of online manipulation, Tobé told my colleague Anupriya Datta, pointing to Russia, China and US tech giants. The initiative, a flagship of von der Leyen’s re-election pitch, landed flat when unveiled in November. Greens MEP Kim van Sparrentak said Parliament’s pro-democracy camp was “very united in our disappointment,” while liberal Helmut Brandstätter warned the plan “lacks determination.”

BERLIN 🇩🇪

Germany has ruled out joining the “Board of Peace” announced by Donald Trump, arguing that an international mechanism for conflict resolution already exists in the form of the United Nations. Speaking during a visit to Nairobi, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said that while the UN remained the appropriate forum for peace diplomacy, it required reform to function more effectively.

– Björn Stritzel

LISBON 🇵🇹

With Portugal heading to an 8 February presidential runoff, the focus has shifted from first-round results to second-round alliances. Centre-left António José Seguro, who led the January vote with around 31%, will face far-right André Ventura (24%) of Chega, but two would-be kingmakers are holding fire. Liberal Initiative’s João Cotrim de Figueiredo (16%) and EPP-linked Luís Marques Mendes (8-11%) have both ruled out endorsements, underscoring fractures on the centre-right, and complicating efforts to corral opposition to Ventura’s populist surge.

– Charles Szumski

PARIS 🇫🇷

Marine Le Pen argued on Tuesday that any misuse of European Parliament funds by assistants linked to the Front National, now known as the National Rally, was unintentional, blaming the legislature for failing to set out sufficiently clear rules. Speaking on the second day of her appeal hearing, Le Pen is seeking to overturn a ruling handed down last March that imposed a five-year ban on holding public office with immediate effect, barring her from standing in the next presidential election. She was convicted of organising a system under which party staff in Paris were paid using EU funds.

– Laurent Geslin

STOCKHOLM 🇸🇪

Ulf Kristersson will convene Sweden’s National Security Council on Saturday, citing a more uncertain global environment, according to the TT press agency. Kristersson said the government’s priority was to safeguard Sweden’s interests and the security of its citizens. The meeting had been delayed due to ministers’ schedules, with the prime minister currently in Davos, before travelling to Brussels for an EU summit on Thursday.

– Charles Szumski

ROME 🇮🇹

Italy is expected to decline an invitation from Trump to join his “Board of Peace,” although Giorgia Meloni is said to be waiting until Davos before making her decision public. She is considering a brief appearance at the World Economic Forum on Thursday, ahead of a key EU Council meeting, amid speculation about a possible bilateral meeting with Trump. Within the governing coalition, doubts have emerged over the initiative’s legal basis. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said the proposal was being assessed from a constitutional perspective, while opposition parties have questioned its implications for the country's position within the EU.

– Alessia Peretti

MADRID 🇪🇸

Spain’s main train drivers’ union, Semaf, on Wednesday called for a nationwide strike over concerns about “safety and reliability,” a day after a crash in Barcelona killed one driver and injured more than 30 people. The call also follows a high-speed train collision in Córdoba on Sunday that left at least 43 people dead and more than 150 injured. In a statement, Semaf cited what it described as the “constant deterioration” of rail infrastructure and said it would seek criminal liability from those responsible for safety failures. Transport Minister Óscar Puente said he understood workers’ concerns and was open to dialogue to avert an “unnecessary” strike.

– Inés Fernández-Pontes

KYIV 🇺🇦

Trump is set to meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Davos on Thursday, a day after he backed away from his threats over Greenland as ceasefire talks in the war in Ukraine grind on. Around the same time, the US president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and his special envoy Steve Witkoff are due in Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin. Earlier in the day, Trump plans to unveil his “Board of Peace,” a controversial conflict resolution body whose open-ended mandate has raised concerns it could rival the United Nations.

– Christina Zhao

ATHENS 🇬🇷

Two people died as heavy rain and violent winds flooded roads across Greece, confined ferries to port and forced school closures in Attica. A coastguard officer in Astros was killed after being struck by a wave while on duty; hours later state broadcaster ERT said a woman in Glyfada was swept away by floodwaters. Kyriakos Mitsotakis postponed a planned trip to Davos. Experts renewed calls for infrastructure upgrades, particularly in Athens, where waterways have largely been covered to accommodate urbanisation.

– Sofia Mandilara

Defamation averted? Politico corrected its newsletter after we pointed out it had invented a new adviser to Health Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi.

Trump argued in Davos that Arctic waters will only be secure under full US ownership, warning Europeans that refusal would have consequences. Retreating ice has turned the region into a strategic prize, but Trump is dismissing both Denmark’s role and the existing US military pressure on the island.

European allies have responded by reinforcing Arctic monitoring and warning against tariff threats, leaving Brussels facing an uncomfortable choice: whether to forcefully confront Washington or once again defer to US security power in a region where Russia and China are watching closely.

Contributors:  Sofía Sánchez Manzanaro, Elisa Braun,Thomas Møller-Nielsen, Magnus Lund Nielsen, Miriam Sáenz de Tejada

Editors: Christina Zhao, Sofia Mandilara, Charles Szumski