You're reading Friday’s Rapporteur, your daily briefing on EU politics. This is Nicoletta Ionta in Brussels.

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Need-to-knows:

🟢 EU lists Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group

🟢 Dutch liberal Rob Jetten stakes government on a fragile right-leaning minority

🟢 EU struggles to arm Ukraine while backing domestic defence

EU foreign ministers on Thursday finally agreed to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation, ending weeks of wrangling between capitals and resistance from key holdouts including France, Italy and Spain.

Paris dropped its long-standing opposition late on Wednesday, after Rome and Madrid capitulated under mounting pressure from other EU countries, clearing the way for the decision. The move comes nearly a month after protests erupted across Iran on 28 December, initially triggered by soaring inflation before evolving into nationwide demonstrations against the clerical regime.

“The EU already has sweeping sanctions in place against Iran,” said the bloc’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas. But designating the IRGC as a terrorist group puts it “on the same footing as Daesh, Hamas, Hezbollah and al-Qaeda. Those who operate through terror must be treated as terrorists.”

The designation imposes EU-wide entry bans on IRGC members, freezes their assets within the bloc and prohibits any form of financing or commercial dealings involving the group.

The United States, Canada and Australia have listed the IRGC as a terrorist entity. Within the EU, pressure has been building since at least 2023, when the European Parliament urged such a step in response to Tehran’s repression at home and its support for armed proxies abroad. The first senior EU figure to publicly condemn the recent crackdown on Iran’s protesters was Roberta Metsola earlier this month, followed days later by Ursula von der Leyen.

Yet the decision looks less like leadership than belated alignment. The IRGC has been central to the security crackdown that, according to human rights groups, has killed thousands, while Brussels hesitated as the toll mounted.

Optics matter in a fast-shifting geopolitical landscape. With Washington again threatening military action in Iran, European leaders are still positioning themselves for what comes next. The designation allows the EU to show it is not standing aside – while preserving room to manoeuvre should the balance of power in Tehran shift.

Energy calculations, too, hover in the background. Iran holds the world’s largest proven natural gas reserves, estimated at roughly 34 trillion cubic metres – enough to meet current EU demand for decades. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has been scrambling to reduce its reliance on Russian gas and secure alternative suppliers. A new Iran could one day figure in that equation.

Donald Trump again escalated his rhetoric this week, warning that “time is running out” for Tehran to strike a deal on its nuclear programme and threatening fresh strikes if it refuses.

“When it comes to attacks, I don’t think the region needs a new war,” Kallas said after the ministers’ meeting. Read my colleague Thomas Møller-Nielsen's full wrap-up of the talks.

Rob Jetten shows his hand

The Netherlands’ incoming coalition, led by liberal Rob Jetten, is set to unveil its governing agreement today, capping its brisk and unexpected round of coalition talks.

Instead of teaming up with Labour-Greens, vetoed by the liberals, Jetten has stitched together a minority pact with parties to his right: the Christian Democrats and Mark Rutte’s VVD. The agreement, titled Aan de slag (“Getting Started”), clears the way for a government expected to take office in mid-February.

Lacking a parliamentary majority, the new administration will be forced to assemble support on a bill-by-bill basis, underscoring its fragile footing from the outset.

Policy details remain closely held. But according to De Telegraaf, the deal is expected to enshrine strict fiscal discipline, including a commitment to keep the budget deficit below 2%, resistance to joint EU borrowing, and a partial rollback of planned cuts to the public broadcaster NPO.

Scoop: Arming Ukraine while buying European

EU capitals are wrestling with how to accelerate arms supplies to Ukraine without hollowing out Europe’s own defence industry. At the centre of the debate is the Commission’s €90 billion loan package, which would require at least 65% of components to be sourced from the EU, Ukraine or Norway – mirroring restrictions in earlier EU defence schemes designed to bolster domestic manufacturers.

Several capitals, backed by NATO chief Mark Rutte, argue that Europe alone cannot meet Kyiv’s battlefield needs, warning that tight sourcing rules risk slowing deliveries and forcing Ukraine to turn elsewhere. They are pressing for greater flexibility to buy from trusted partners, including the US.

A Council compromise document, seen by my colleague Charles Cohen and me, would further refine the approach. Under the proposal, Ukraine would be allowed to procure only critical capabilities – including air defence systems, missiles, drones and fighter jets – from approved third countries, such as Canada and the UK, or where no viable European alternative exists. EU ambassadors are expected to discuss the matter next week.

UN: Europe’s fighting the wrong fight

The EU's push to rein in its top human rights court risks targeting the wrong problem, the UN’s human rights chief has warned.

Speaking to Rapporteur after Thursday’s meeting of EU foreign ministers, Volker Türk said attempts to influence the European Court of Human Rights amounted to a “false issue” that obscured Europe’s failure to resolve its migration debate. “We should honour it, treasure it, cherish it,” he said. “We have to absolutely respect the independence of the court.”

His remarks come as ministers at the Council of Europe revisit how the court interprets migration law, following an initiative led by Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen, and first reported by Euractiv. “It's not the European Convention or the European Court that are the problem,” Türk told my colleague Jacob Wulff Wold. “It's the problem of the toxic discourse that we have on migration.”

February sanctions on Russia

The EU is aiming to unveil its 20th sanctions package against Russia to coincide with the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February, Kaja Kallas confirmed yesterday.

Proposals under discussion include a joint Finnish-Swedish push to ban maritime services for Russian oil tankers, tighten restrictions on fertiliser imports and expand curbs on luxury goods, according to the bloc’s foreign policy chief. “I can't say that we have an agreement now,” Kallas told reporters. “But we continue working with this.”

Three EU diplomats told my colleague Thomas and me that preparatory “confessionals” – closed-door discussions between senior EU officials and governments on planned policy proposals – are expected to begin in the coming days.

Metsola backs Meloni’s Trump tightrope

Roberta Metsola has endorsed Giorgia Meloni’s handling of Donald Trump, praising her efforts to keep diplomatic channels open despite rising transatlantic tensions.

Speaking on Italian TV during a visit to Rome, the European Parliament president called Meloni’s strategy the “right way to proceed” amid the recent Greenland spat, in which Washington threatened higher tariffs on EU countries who opposed his demand to take control of Nuuk.

Meloni has long played the careful balancer with Trump, avoiding open confrontation and framing the tariff row as a misunderstanding while calling for closer EU-US engagement.

“Keeping all channels of communication open has shown us, even with regard to Greenland, that this is the right way to proceed,” Metsola said on Thursday night. “We were united, and the message that Meloni conveyed to the American administration was very clear about the European position.”

Copenhagen/Nuuk 🇩🇰 🇬🇱

Negotiations over Greenland are “back on track,” Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said in Brussels on Thursday, after senior Danish and US officials held their first talks on the future of the American presence in the semi-autonomous territory. The discussions would build on existing defence agreements, Jeff Landry, the US envoy to Greenland, wrote in a statement. The King of Denmark said he plans to visit Greenland next month. “We have been deeply affected by what has been happening in Greenland in recent weeks,” Frederik X told reporters during a state visit to Lithuania.

– Magnus Lund Nielsen

PARIS 🇫🇷

PM Sébastien Lecornu is expected on Thursday to invoke Article 49.3 of the constitution for a third time to force through the final version of the 2026 state budget without a parliamentary vote. Two no-confidence motions are set to follow, tabled by left-wing parties excluding the Socialists and by the far-right National Rally. After four months of negotiations, the budget is expected to be definitively adopted once both motions are defeated – most likely on Monday.

– Laurent Geslin

STOCKHOLM 🇸🇪

Sweden has rejected a request from Turkey for legal assistance to question Swedish journalist Joakim Medin, citing concerns over press freedom and the rule of law. Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer said complying would risk undermining free expression and independent journalism. Medin, a reporter for Dagens ETC, was detained in Istanbul last year while covering protests linked to opposition figure Ekrem İmamoğlu. He was charged with “membership of an armed terrorist organisation” and with “insulting the President.” Swedish authorities and Medin have described the case as politically motivated.

– Charles Szumski

ATHENS 🇬🇷

Paris and Athens have agreed to renew their 2021 defence agreement, including a mutual military assistance clause, at a sensitive moment for European security. The move comes amid EU unease over Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace,” which some fear could sideline the United Nations and complicate unresolved disputes with Turkey. Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias said the two countries were “linked by a shared understanding” of international law and the Law of the Sea, underlining Athens’ legal and political concerns.

– Sarantis Michalopoulos

PRAGUE 🇨🇿

Andrej Babiš said on Thursday that the government would proceed with the purchase of US-made F-35 fighter jets but would seek to renegotiate elements of the deal. He said the project was too far advanced to be halted, while signalling scope to improve the financing terms. Babiš had previously criticised the F-35 acquisition as excessively costly and pledged to reassess major defence contracts. The purchase of 24 aircraft, approved by the previous government, is the most expensive military procurement in the Czech Republic’s history.

– Aneta Zachová

BRATISLAVA 🇸🇰

Robert Fico met Emmanuel Macron in Paris, with the two sides offering limited – and contrasting – accounts of the talks. Macron described the meeting on social media, posting in Slovak, as a moment of “strategic awakening” aimed at strengthening unity and solidarity to secure European independence. Fico called the talks “great” and “confidential,” saying they covered Slovakia’s stance on the war in Ukraine and potential cooperation in the arms industry.

– Natalia Silenska

DG ENER succession: Céline Gauer, a senior French Commission official currently leading the Reform and Investment Task Force, is set to replace Ditte Juul Jørgensen as chief of DG ENER, according to two EU officials familiar with the matter. Gauer currently oversees the task force responsible for managing the EU’s post-Covid reform and investment programmes, a role that has placed her at the centre of the bloc’s economic recovery architecture.

German musings on the EU’s future: Undine Ruge, a long-serving but low-profile Europe adviser to two German chancellors who both shaped the bloc in their own ways – Angela Merkel and Olaf Scholz – has joined the Commission’s in-house think tank, DG IDEA, Rapporteur has learned.

Ruge will work on issues related to the future of the EU and its institutions within the Commission’s executive talent pool, which previously included Eric Mamer, now head of DG ENVI. German journalists will know her from chancellery briefings ahead of European Council meetings.

Spain’s transport ministry is under growing pressure after investigators acknowledged an “undeniable possibility” that rail infrastructure played a role in this month’s deadly high-speed crash near Córdoba, a shift from the government’s initial insistence that the tracks were not at fault. The probe is unfolding against a backdrop of corruption allegations at ADIF and the transport ministry, reviving scrutiny of the country’s rail-safety oversight and uncomfortable memories of the Angrois disaster.

Contributors: Jacob Wulff Wold, Thomas Moller-Nielsen, Elisa Braun, Sofia Sanchez Manzanaro, Magnus Lund Nielsen, Nikolaus J. Kurmayer, Charles Cohen

Editors: Christina Zhao, Charles Szumski, Sofia Mandilara