Even Putin seems fine with Ukraine joining the EU. But the problem isn’t Russia – it’s Hungary.
That’s why whispers are circulating about a radical workaround to Budapest’s veto, which has frozen Ukraine’s membership aspirations and dealt collateral damage to Moldova’s parallel bid ahead of a knife-edge election.
Around a dozen countries want to change the EU’s rules so that only a weighted majority – not the full complement of 27 states – would be needed to open a fresh cluster of accession negotiations, the very stage blocking Kyiv and Chișinău. Unanimity would remain necessary at the start and end of the process, but not for all the myriad intermediate steps.
“We need a much cleaner process ... with fewer possibilities for countries to veto,” Jessica Rosencrantz, Sweden’s minister for EU affairs, said. “We can’t just look the other way. We need to increase pressure.” She raised the idea at a meeting, noting that it could also apply to sanctions, another area where Hungary has dug in.
Rosencrantz is hardly alone. Foreign ministers from Germany, Italy, Slovenia, and Austria recently urged Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos to "simplify and streamline" the process for growing the club, warning the EU’s "credibility" was at stake.
Sigitas Mitkus, Lithuania’s vice-minister for foreign affairs, echoed: “We really are in favour of flexibilities in the enlargement process.”
It's not just about Hungary. Bulgaria has for years frustrated North Macedonia’s candidacy. “We have to find a solution about bilateralisation to stop the penetration of Russian interests in the Western Balkan,” said Orhan Murtezani, North Macedonia’s minister of European affairs.
Yet the paradox is obvious: to change the rules, Hungary must agree. “It would be both legally and politically impossible,” said János Bóka, the country's EU minister. Luxembourg’s Deputy PM Xavier Bettel was gentler, if no less resigned: “This won’t fly now,” he said, suggesting a more gradual approach.
Why, then, pursue such an idea? There are few other ways the EU26 can pressure Hungary to drop its veto. With Russian bombs still falling on Ukraine and Moldova preparing for pivotal elections, the nations are under pressure to conjure progress, however modest, so pro-European leaders have something to take home.
In Moldova today, Kos will unveil a call for projects under the EU’s €1.8 billion Growth Plan. “It’s a huge amount of money,” she insisted.
EU officials stress that technical work to prepare Ukraine and Moldova’s entry is continuing apace, but an idea to let Chișinău move ahead alone was dropped after Kyiv objected.
The only real prospect for change may be Hungary’s election next year, which could see PM Viktor Orbán voted out. Until then, enlargement remains stuck.
(All six officials quoted in this story – Jessica Rosencrantz, Sigitas Mitkus, Orhan Murtezani, János Bóka, Xavier Bettel, Marta Kos – spoke directly to me.)
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